Subject: 06MAR11 solar flare events
From: "Daryl J. Yentis" <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Date: Mon, 7 Mar 2011 08:00:10 -0500 (EST)

Max '01  -  EVENT LISTING for MAR 06, 2011

    Time (UT)    X-Ray Opt Loca- NOAA      Peak Radio      Associated           
Begin  Max  End  Class Imp tion  Region       Flux         Reports              
                                         2.7    8.8   15.4                      
********************************************************************************
 0023 0026  0029  C1.6                                                      
 0129 0133  0137  C1.8 SF N25W35 1164                      III/1            
 0203 0208  0211  C2.1 SF S20W57 1165                      III/1            
 0337 0345  0351  C3.7 SF S20W58 1165                                       
 0407 0415  0420  C1.8 SF N24W36 1164                      III/1            
 0433 0444  0448  C1.7 SF N24W37 1164                                       
 0528 0532  0536  C4.6 SF N21W34 1164                      III/1            
 0659 0707  0709  C2.8 SF N20W35 1164                      III/1            
 0730 0733  0735  C2.4 SF N20W35 1164                      III/1            
 0830 0833  0837  C1.6           1165                      VI/2             
 0849 0904  0907  C2.6           1165                                       
 0954 1001  1006  C3.1           1164                      CTM/1            
 1031 1040  1055  C7.5           1165                      VI/2             
 1156 1209  1212  C5.1           1166                      VI/2             
 1331 1350  1416  C6.0           1169                      VI/2             
 1441 1444  1447  C8.6           1164                                       
 1521 1527  1530  C3.9           1166                      III/2            
 1602 1619  1622  C4.7           1164                      III/1            
 1625 1630  1633  C6.9           1164                                       
 1932 1937  1941  C2.3 SF N23W41 1164                      VI/1             
 2117 2121  2125  C1.4                                     III/1            
 2151 2157  2205  C1.4 SF S18W67 1165                      III/1            
 2333 2335  2337  C2.2 SF S20W68 1165                      III/1            
********************************************************************************

:Product: 0306RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Mar 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1164 (N24W46), 1165
(S20W68), 1166 (N11E27), and a new region numbered today as 1169
(N21E56) have all produced C-class events in the past 24 hours.  The
largest of these was a C8 at 06/1444Z from Region 1164.  This region
continues to maintain its Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for a M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with one period of unsettled
conditions reported at 06/1500Z.  Observations from the ACE
spacecraft observed a period around 06/1350Z of southward Bz to -5nT
and a Bt of +6nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions,
and a slight chance for minor storm levels at high latitudes, for
day one (07 March).  This activity is expected due to the possible
arrival of the CME observed on 03 March.  Predominately quiet
conditions are expected for days two and three (08-09 March).
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Mar 143
Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        06 Mar 090
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/05/05
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01