Subject: 21SEP11 solar flare events
From: "Daryl J. Yentis" <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 08:00:12 -0400 (EDT)

Max '01  -  EVENT LISTING for SEP 21, 2011

    Time (UT)    X-Ray Opt Loca- NOAA      Peak Radio      Associated           
Begin  Max  End  Class Imp tion  Region       Flux         Reports              
                                         2.7    8.8   15.4                      
********************************************************************************
 0055 0107  0114  C2.7 SF N22E56 1301                      VI/1             
 0737 0741  0747  C1.9 SF N22W40 1295                      III/2            
 1117 1124  1128  C3.9 2F N24E54 1301                      CTM/1            
 1204 1223  1245  M1.8                                     VI/1             
 1421 1423  1426  C2.6 SF N21W43 1295                      VI/1             
 1437 1438  1441  C2.7 SF N24W44 1295                                       
 1521 1526  1530  C2.8 SF N21W44 1295                      III/1            
 1613 1616  1620  C2.3                                     III/1            
 1647 1649  1651  C2.1 SF N22W45                                            
 2031 2036  2040  C2.0 SF N24W48 1295                      VI/1             
********************************************************************************

:Product: 0921RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Sep 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. An M1 flare was observed
at 21/1223Z from Region 1301 (N20E41). Regions 1295 (N22W47) and
1301 showed increases in area and produced occasional C-class flares
during the period. Three CMEs were observed towards the NE quadrant,
none of which are expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class flares from Regions 1295 and 1301
during the period (22-24 September).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels at mid-latitudes, with
isolated unsettled to active levels at high-latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels during the period
(22-24 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Sep 144
Predicted   22 Sep-24 Sep  144/144/140
90 Day Mean        21 Sep 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01