Subject: 22SEP11 solar flare events
From: "Daryl J. Yentis" <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2011 08:00:10 -0400 (EDT)

Max '01  -  EVENT LISTING for SEP 22, 2011

    Time (UT)    X-Ray Opt Loca- NOAA      Peak Radio      Associated           
Begin  Max  End  Class Imp tion  Region       Flux         Reports              
                                         2.7    8.8   15.4                      
********************************************************************************
 0420 0428  0441  C6.6 SF N25W53 1295                      V/2              
 0849 0905  0909  C8.9 1N N15E83 1302                      III/2            
 0953 1000  1009  M1.1           1302                                       
 1029 1101  1144  X1.4           1302                      II/2    1035     
 2014 2020  2033  C4.0 SF N22W58 1295                      VI/1             
 2221 2230  2236  C5.5 SF N24W63 1295                      III/1            
 2351 2356  0002  C4.1 SF N26W60 1295                      III/1            
********************************************************************************

:Product: 0922RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Sep 22 2225 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Activity was high. New Region 1302 (N11E74) produced a
long-duration X1/2n flare at 22/1101Z. The X1 flare was associated
with Types II and IV radio sweeps, a 970 sfu Tenflare, and a full
halo CME. The CME, already in progress in SOHO LASCO images at
22/1330Z, had an estimated speed of around 1392 km/s. This CME is
not expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be high,
with a slight chance for another X-class flare from Region 1302.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (23-24 September). Quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active levels at high latitudes, are
expected on day three (25 September), due to a weak coronal hole
high-speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Sep 151
Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep  155/160/165
90 Day Mean        22 Sep 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01